Journal Articles

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Publications can be accessed via the Columbia University Academic Commons or through the links provided below.

2024

The IPCC’s reductive Common Era temperature history

J. Esper

J. E. Smerdon

K. J. Anchukaitis

K. Allen

E. R. Cook

R. D'Arrigo

S. Guillet

F. Ljungqvist

F. Reinig

L. Schneider

M. Sigl

M. Stoffel

M. Trnka

R. Wilson

U. Büntgen

Emergent trends complicate the interpretation of the United States Drought Monitor (USDM)

Z. Li

J. E. Smerdon

R. Seager

N. Siegert

J. S. Mankin

The changing influence of precipitation on soil moisture drought with warming in the Mediterranean and Western North America

M. Nielsen

B. I. Cook

K. Marvel

M. Ting

J. E. Smerdon

Increasing prevalence of hot drought across western North America since the 16th century

K. E. King

E. R. Cook

K. J. Anchukaitis

B. I. Cook

J. E. Smerdon

R. Seager

G. L. Harley

B. Spei

2023

Model and proxy evidence for coordinated changes in the hydroclimate of distant regions over the Last Millennium

P. J. Roldán-Gómez

J. F. González-Rouco

J. E. Smerdon

F. García-Pereira

The Historical Development of Large-Scale Paleoclimate Field Reconstructions over the Common Era

J. E. Smerdon

E. R. Cook

N. J. Steiger

2022

Timing of Common Era (Year 1–present) regional megadroughts recorded in observations and the palaeoclimate record.

Megadroughts in the Common Era and the Anthropocene

B. I. Cook

J. E. Smerdon

E. R. Cook

A. P. Williams

K. J. Anchukaitis

J. S. Mankin

K. Allen

L. Andreu-Hayles

T. R. Ault

S. Belmecheri

S. Coats

B. Coulthard

B. Fosu

P. Grierson

D. Griffin

D. A. Herrera

M. Ionita

F. Lehner

C. Leland

K. Marvel

M. S. Morales

V. Mishra

J. Ngoma

H. TT. Nguyen

A. O’Donnell

J. Palmer

M. P. Rao

M. Rodriguez-Caton

R. Seager

D. W. Stahle

S. Stevenson

U. K. Thapa

A. M. Varuolo-Clarke

E. K. Wise

South American Monsoon variability over the last millennium in paleoclimate records and isotope-enabled climate models

R. Orrison

M. Vuille

J. E. Smerdon

J. Apaéstegui

J. L. P. S. Campos

F. W. Cruz

M. E. Della Libera

Past and contemporary large-scale temperature reconstructions.

Progress and uncertainties in global and hemispheric temperature reconstructions of the Common Era  

K. J. Anchukaitis

J. E. Smerdon

Sea surface salinity before the 1976 climate shift subtracted from sea surface salinity after the climate shift.

Drivers of coral reconstructed salinity in the South China Sea and Maritime Continent: the influence of the 1976 Indo-Pacific climate shift

A. Kannad

N. F. Goodkin

D. Samanta

S. A. Murty

R. D. Ramos

J. E. Smerdon

A. L. Gordon

Moisture fluxes and southeastern South America (SESA) precipitation from 1951 to 2020: Vertically integrated December-February moisture flux magnitude (shading) and direction (arrows).

Influence of the South American low-level jet on the austral summer precipitation trend in southeastern South America

A. M. Varuolo-Clarke

A. P. Williams

J. E. Smerdon

M. Ting

D. A. Bishop

Regional Signatures of Forced North Atlantic SST Variability: A Limited Role for Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases

S. H. Baek

Y. Kushnir

M. Ting

J. E. Smerdon

J. M. Lora

Effect of forest fire on water year streamflow.

Growing impact of wildfire on western United States water supply

A. P. Williams

B. Livneh

K. A McKinnon

W. Hansen

J. S. Mankin

B. I. Cook

J. E. Smerdon

A. M. Varuolo-Clarke

N. R. Bjarke

C. S. Juang

D. P. Lettenmaier

Time series of cumulative SWNA soil moisture anomalies, in σ, during the development of the most negative 22-yr mean soil moisture anomalies

Rapid intensification of the emerging southwestern North American megadrought in 2020–2021

A. P. Williams

B. I. Cook

J. E. Smerdon

First EOF of DJF tropical precipitation for the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian basins obtained from the ‘all forcing’ sub-ensemble of the CESM-LME.

The role of internal variability in ITCZ changes over the Last Millennium

P. J. Roldán-Gómez

J. F. González-Rouco

C. Melo-Aguilar

J. E. Smerdon

Average annual precipitation over the central and south Pacific Ocean from 1979 to 2017.

Large infrequent rain events dominate the hydroclimate of Rapa Nui (Easter Island)

N. J. Steiger

W. J. D'Andrea

J. E. Smerdon

R. S. Bradley

2021

A pseudoproxy assessment of why climate field reconstruction methods perform the way they do in time and space

S. Yun

J. E. Smerdon

B. Li

X. Zhang

Changing hydroclimate dynamics and the 19th to 20th century wetting trend in the English Channel region of northwest Europe

S. R. Scholz

R. Seager

M. Ting

Y. Kushnir

J. E. Smerdon

B. I. Cook

E. R. Cook

S. H. Baek

Uncertainties, limits, and benefits of climate change mitigation for soil moisture drought in Southwestern North America

B. I. Cook

J. S. Mankin

A. P. Williams

K. D. Marvel

J. E. Smerdon

H. Liu

Composites of DJF SST and PDSI from PHYDA for all years corresponding to NASW megadrought conditions, SASW megadrought conditions, when megadroughts do not exist in either location (Neither) and when megadroughts exist in both locations (Both). Temperature and PDSI data are anomalies with respect to the analysis period 1000–1925 CE.

ENSO-driven coupled megadroughts in North and South America over the last millennium

N. J. Steiger

J. E. Smerdon

R. Seager

A.P. Williams

A. M. Varuolo-Clarke

Box-and-whisker plots showing CMIP6 inter-model spread in SSP5-8.5 trends in the annual mean (blue), amplitude (orange) and phase (green) of the annual cycle.

Projected Changes to Hydroclimate Seasonality in the Continental United States

K. Marvel

B. I. Cook

C. Bonfils

J. E. Smerdon

A. P. Williams

H. Liu

Box plots of linear trends in SESA DJF precipitation calculated as the relative change (% dec-1) for historical simulations in (a) CMIP5 and (b) CMIP6 both from 1921-2005

Gross discrepancies between observed and simulated 20th-21st-century precipitation trends in Southeastern South America

A. M. Varuolo-Clarke

J. E. Smerdon

A. P. Williams

R. Seager

NH (>25°N) JJA temperature response to the TVEev and TVEGao in PHYDA, CESM (ensemble member number 10), N‐TREND and NH‐MXD; LMR (Annual) responses over the same domain are also shown.

Global temperature responses to large tropical volcanic eruptions in paleo data assimilation products and climate model simulations over the Last Millennium

E. Tejedor

N. J. Steiger

J. E. Smerdon

R. Serrano-Notivoli

M. Vuille

Climate system response in PHYDA to last millennium large TVEs in the boreal winter.

Global hydroclimatic response to tropical volcanic eruptions over the Last Millennium

E. Tejedor

N. J. Steiger

J. E. Smerdon

R. Serrano-Notivoli

M. Vuille

(top row) Composites of pan-coastal droughts defined by JJA soil moisture and their concurrent water year DJF SSTs and 500 mb height anomalies across the (left) CAM5 GOGA, (middle) CCM3 GOGA, and (right) CCM3 POGA-ML ensembles during 1856 – 2012.

US Pacific Coastal Droughts are Predominantly Driven by Internal Atmospheric Variability

S.H. Baek

J.E. Smerdon

B.I. Cook

A.P. Williams

Growing season responses for experiments prescribed with LAI from “pseudo” 2xCO2 experiment.

Disentangling the regional climate impacts of competing vegetation responses to elevated atmospheric CO2

S. Shukla McDermid

B. I Cook

M. G. De Kauwe

J. S. Mankin

J. E. Smerdon

A. P. Williams

R. Seager

M. J. Puma

M. Kelley

I. Aleinov

L. Nazarenko

2020

Maps of the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of the Great Famine Mode in the OWDA from 1300 to 2012, and composites of the annual extreme wet and dry anomalies from 1300 to 2012.

A quantitative hydroclimatic context for the European Great Famine of 1315-1317

S.H. Baek

J.E. Smerdon

G.-C. Dobrin

J. Naimark

E. R. Cook

B. I. Cook

R. Seager

M. A. Cane

S. R. Scholz

Space–time grid points assigned a drought state by the drought identification algorithm with each grid point colored corresponding to its PDSI value.

Paleoclimate constraints on the spatiotemporal character of past and future droughts

S. Coats

J.E. Smerdon

S. Stevenson

J.T. Fasullo

B. Otto-Bliesner

T.R. Ault

Value of KD over the reconstruction period from 850 CE to 1850 CE

Evaluating proxy influence in assimilated paleoclimate reconstructions – Testing the exchangeability of two ensembles of spatial processes

T. Harris

B. Li

N.J. Steiger

J.E. Smerdon

N. Narisetty

J.D. Tucker

SADA domain and verifications based on instrumental climate and historical documents

Six hundred years of South American tree rings reveal an increase in severe hydroclimatic events since mid-20th century

M. S. Morales

E. R. Cook

J. Barichivich

D. A. Christie

R. Villalba

C. LeQuesne

A. M. Srur

M. E. Ferrero

A. González-Reyes

F. Couvreux

V. Matskovsky

J. C. Aravena

A. Lara

I. A. Mundo

F. Rojas

M. R. Prieto

J. E. Smerdon

L. O. Bianchi

M. H. Masiokas

R. Urrutia-Jalabert

M. Rodriguez-Catón

A. A. Muñoz

M. Rojas-Badilla

C. Alvarez

L. Lopez

B. H. Luckman

D. Lister

I. Harris

P. D. Jones

A. P. Williams

G. Velazquez

D. Aliste

I. Aguilera-Betti

E. Marcotti

F. Flores

T. Muñoz

E. Cuq

J. A. Boninsegna

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2024

The IPCC’s reductive Common Era temperature history

Emergent trends complicate the interpretation of the United States Drought Monitor (USDM)

The changing influence of precipitation on soil moisture drought with warming in the Mediterranean and Western North America

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